The Hype and the Reality

Janet Turra & Cambridge Diversity Fund / Better Images of AI / Ground Up and Spat Out / CC-BY 4.0

Its probably fair to say that the hype around Generative AI far outstrips the reality. Perhaps that is because in the slow process of discovering actual jobs which AI can do, copy editing and advertising is one of those at the forefront.And goven that the AI companies are very keen on hyping their products, there is an endless stream of artciples saying how wonderful AI is for almost every occupation. These articles almost always talk about how much time AI saves and how this increases productivity.

Here's an example from a company called Screenloop:

"AI is not simply a tool—it’s a disruptor. In an era where agility and efficiency are non-negotiable, the role of AI has extended beyond merely assisting recruiters— it’s reshaping the very fabric of how we think about talent acquisition. What was once seen as an administrative task is now a strategic role in defining a company’s future.

Now that AI tools can handle resume screening, scheduling, and even initial candidate engagement, recruiters find themselves in a unique position. The question now isn't just 'how much time can we save?' but rather, 'how can we strategically reinvest it? How can we maximise the impact of the time AI gives back to us?'

Speed and Precision

AI's impact on recruitment processes, particularly in screening, is undeniable. Tools that can parse thousands of resumes in seconds have revolutionised the way talent acquisition operates. But the real advantage isn't just speed—it’s precision. By filtering out irrelevant applications and flagging the most promising candidates based on predetermined criteria, AI doesn't just make processes faster, it makes them smarter.

Enhanced Candidate Experience

A significant benefit of AI in recruitment is the potential to enhance candidate experience. In fact, companies using AI in hiring have reported a 30% increase in candidate satisfaction, not because the tools replaced human interaction, but because they created space for more meaningful engagement. When AI handles repetitive tasks, recruiters can focus on optimising the candidate experience based on insights collected by tools such as Screenloop's candidate pulse solution. And this matters—experience drives employer brand perception in a competitive market."

And so on.......

But now the reality. Charlie Ball, UK Jisc's head of labour market intelligence, has published his annual forecast of what's to come in the labour market in the year ahead. And one of his predictions is about recruitment! Here is what he says:

AI may not take your jobs but it's a headache in recruitment.

As the ISE have been telling us in detail, AI is not, so far, displacing loads of jobs as might have been feared a couple of years ago, but it's still having quite an impact. AI is good at writing covering letters and CVs, and so it makes sense for candidates to use them, and so they do. That means it's a lot easier for candidates to write a lot of relatively good job applications, quickly, and so that's exactly what they do.

This means everyone is applying for all the jobs available, so even though there are actually more jobs than there used to be, they're all getting more applicants, all using the same tools, with largely identical applications and recruiters are swamped, which means they have to spend more resources to administer a recruitment round, which ultimately makes recruitment harder and more expensive. That may start to have an effect on vacancy numbers.

What recruiters want to do is encourage applicants to use AI well - after all, it's likely to be a useful business skill - and discourage it being used badly. So they don't want to stop it entirely, but do expect a lot more talk this year about how to limit it being used in applications. And a lot of talk from online hustlers claiming they have a magic solution to make your applications foolproof using AI, of course.

About the feature image

The outputs of Large Language Models do seem uncanny often leading people to compare the abilities of these systems to thinking, dreaming or hallucinating. This image is intended to be a tongue-in-cheek dig, suggesting that AI is at its core, just a simple information ‘meat grinder,’ feeding off the words, ideas and images on the internet, chopping them up and spitting them back out. The collage also makes the point that when we train these models on our biased, inequitable world the responses we get cannot possibly differ from the biased and inequitable world that made them. Attributions - Studio of: Willem van de Velde II, Michele Tosini https://nationalgalleryimages.ie/groupitem/40/ This image was created using Canva: www.canva.com

Generative AI, Assessment and the Future of Jobs and Careers

Ten days ago, I was invited to make an online presentation as part of a series on AI for teachers and researchers in Kazakhstan. I talked with the organisers and they asked me if I could speak about AI and Assessment and AI and Careers. Two subjects seemed hard to me but I prepared presentation linking them together and somehow it made sense. The presentation was using a version of Zoom I had not seen before to enable interpretation. My slides were translated into Russian. This was a little stressful as I was changing the slides in Russian online and in English on a laptop at the same time. It was even more stressful that my TP Link to the internet went down after two minutes and I had to change room to get better connectivity!

Anyway, it seemed to go well and there were good questions from the audience of about 150. Given that the recording was in Russian, I made a new English version. We still experimenting with the best way to do an audio track over slide decks and provide a Spanish translation so sorry that some of these slides are not perfect. But I hope you get the message.

Pathways to Future Jobs

katielwhite91 (CC0), Pixabay

Even before the COVIP 19 crisis and the consequent looming economic recession labour market researchers and employment experts were concerned at the prospects for the future of work due to automation and Artificial Intelligence.

The jury is still out concerning the overall effect of automation and AI on employment numbers. Some commentators have warned of drastic cuts in jobs, more optimistic projections have speculated that although individual occupations may suffer, the end effect may even be an increase in employment as new occupations and tasks emerge.

There is however general agreement on two things. The first is that there will be disruption to may occupations, in some cases leasing to a drastic reduction in the numbers employed and that secondly the tasks involved in different occupations will change.

In such a situation it is necessary to provide pathways for people from jobs at risk due to automation and AI to new and hopefully secure employment. In the UK NESTA are running the CareerTech Challenge programme, aimed at using technology to support the English Government’s National Retraining Scheme. In Canada, the Brookfield Institute has produced a research report ‘Lost and Found, Pathways from Disruption to Employment‘, proposing a framework for identifying and realizing opportunities in areas of growing employment, which, they say “could help guide the design of policies and programs aimed at supporting mid-career transitions.”

The framework is based on using Labour Market Information. But, as the authors point out, “For people experiencing job loss, the exact pathways from shrinking jobs to growing opportunities are not always readily apparent, even with access to labour market information (LMI).”

The methodology is based on the identification of origin occupations and destination occupations. Origin occupations are jobs which are already showing signs of employment. Decline regardless of the source of th disruption. Destination jobs are future orientated jobs into which individuals form an origin occupation can be reasonably expected to transition. They are growing, competitive and relatively resilient to shocks.

Both origin and destination occupations are identified by an analysis of employment data.

They are matched by analysing the underlying skills, abilities, knowledge, and work activities they require. This is based on data from the O*Net program. Basically, the researchers were looking for a high 80 or 90 per cent match. They also were looking for destination occupations which would include an increase in pay – or at least no decrease.

But even then, some qualitative analysis is needed. For instance, even with a strong skills match, a destination occupation might require certification which would require a lengthy or expensive training programme. Thus, it is not enough to rely on the numbers alone. Yet od such pathways can be identified then it could be possible to provide bespoke training programmes to support people in moving between occupations.

The report emphasises that skills are not the only issue and discusses other factors that affect a worker’s journey, thereby, they say “grounding the model in practical realities. We demonstrate that exploring job pathways must go beyond skills requirements to reflect the realities of how people make career transitions.”

These could include personal confidence or willingness or ability to move for a new job. They also include the willingness of employers to look beyond formal certificates as the basis for taking on new staff.

The report emphasises the importance of local labour market information. That automation and AI are impacting very differently in different cities and regions is also shown in research from both Nesta and the Centre for Cities in the UK. Put quite simply in some cities there are many jobs likely to be hard hit by automation and AI, in other cities far less. Of course, such analysis is going to be complicated by COVID 19. Cities, such as Derby in the UK, have a high percentage of jobs in the aerospace industry and these previously seemed relatively secure: this is now not so.

In this respect there is a problem with freely available Labour Market Information. The Brookfield Institute researchers were forced to base their work on the Canadian 2006 and 2016 censuses which as they admit was not ideal. Tn the UK data on occupations and employment from the Office of National Statistics is not available at a city level and it is very difficult to match up qualifications to employment. If similar work is to be undertaken in the UK, there will be a need for more disaggregated local Labour Market Information, some of it which may already be being collected through city governments and Local Economic Partnerships.

Digital innovations webinar

mark, marker, hand

geralt (CC0), Pixabay

Pontydysgu has recently been working with Deirdre Hughes from DH Associates in developing a serie sof Webinars around the use of technology, including AI, in career development

. The next webinar in the series – entitled Digital Innovations is on 6th May from 1630 – 1730 CEST (an hour earlier if you are in the UK time zone) and will include presentations from Rhys Herriott, NESTA CareerTech Challenge and Gareth Phillips, Head of Communications, Careers Wales.

This webinar explores digitial innovations in a career development context.

Nesta research suggests that more than six million people in the UK are currently employed in occupations that are likely to radically change or entirely disappear by 2030 due to Artificial Intelligence, automation, population aging, urbanisation and the rise of the green economy. In the nearer-term, the coronavirus crisis has intensified the importance of this problem. Recent warnings suggest that a prolonged lockdown could result in 6.5 million people losing their jobs. Of these workers, nearly 80% do not have a university degree.

Nesta is delivering the CareerTech Challenge in the UK, in partnership with the Department for Education, as part of their National Retraining Scheme. Solutions being funded through the CareerTech Challenge are designed to support people who will be hit the hardest by an insecure job market over the coming years.

Careers Wales is on a digital transformation journey from its award winning use of video, exciting new gaming developments and pioneering website and resources. In recent times the company has adapted its service delivery model in response to the Covid-19 outbreak. Key lessons are being learned in relation to the role of digital as they look ahead and plan for the new normal.

Note: DMH Associates and Pontydysgu are supported by DfE and Nesta through the CareerTech Challenge. You can find out more information about the programme here: https://www.nesta.org.uk/project/careertech-challenge/.

You can sign up for the webinar here.